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Oscar and the grouch

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Updated March 2 with the winners. Hooray! I got 19 right of the 24 awards, making for a remarkable 80% success rate! (Thanks, windows calculator!) I should have put money down, clearly

I was kind of hoping Yahoo! would run another online Oscar pool this year, but it looks like they’ve decided to scale back on such entertaining interactive content in favour of selling more porn videos or whatever. So, in lieu of that, I am going to post my OFFICIAL Oscar predictions RIGHT HERE on this WEBSITE where various words are CAPITALIZED to indicate EMPHASIS.

My ’should win’ pick will be in bold, my ‘will win’ pick will be underlined and performances/films I have not viewed will be in italics just for the hell of it. Wow, do I ever like showing off my HTML abilities.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Johnny Depp - PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL
Ben Kingsley - HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
Jude Law - COLD MOUNTAIN
Bill Murray - LOST IN TRANSLATION
Sean Penn - MYSTIC RIVER

Lost in Translation would not be anywhere near as good if not for Murray’s performance. I think it is undoubtedly the best work of his career and to let such a display of talent go unrewarded would be an affront to everything good in this world. Sean Penn is a great actor, don’t get me wrong, but Mystic River was a terribly uneven film that wasn’t even Penn’s best work this YEAR. If he was up for the much superior 21 Grams, this would be a little tougher, but I’d still go with Murray. Yes, Penn is due for an Oscar due to his wealth of good work, but so too is Murray, I’d argue, having not even been nominated for his stellar turns in Rushmore, Groundhog Day and — you’re damn right I’m serious — Ghostbusters.

I refuse to see Cold Mountain because I am a spiteful man, but Law has no chance anyway. I never really got all the hullabaloo over Johnny Depp in Pirates. It was a cute film and his performance is fun, but not Oscar worthy. Kingsley was good enough in House but I sort of felt like it was the type of character he could have played in his sleep.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alec Baldwin - THE COOLER
Benicio Del Toro - 21 GRAMS
Djimon Hounsou - IN AMERICA
Tim Robbins - MYSTIC RIVER
Ken Watanabe - THE LAST SAMURAI

This is probably the easiest category to predict, but then again the Oscars have been known for surprising us, especially in recent years. Anyone remember when Kate Hudson was DEFINITELY getting the statue for Almost Famous? And, hey, did ANYONE correctly pick Roman Freakin’ Polanski for Best Director last year? Tim Robbins, however, has such a huge level of momentum going into the awards that I can’t pick anyone BUT him, as much as I thought his performance was, like the rest of Mystic River, kind of bland. I think he’ll get it, partly because the Academy seems to LOVE Eastwood movies, and partly because Robbins has gone largely unrewarded for a pretty damn remarkable career so far. I can’t disagree with the latter, as this is the guy who was in Shawshank Redemption, High Fidelity AND Howard the Duck. If that doesn’t deserve at least one award, I don’t know what does.

It’s tough to pick between Del Toro and Baldwin, personally. I really liked both their performances. 21 Grams is, by far, a much better film than The Cooler, and Del Toro’s performance isn’t one to write-off easily, but I think Baldwin’s turn as a hardass casino owner is more worthy of the trophy, simply by virtue of being a more unique and memorable character.

I desperately want to see In America, by the way. I need to get on that. The Last Samurai holds zero interest to me, though, even if it does feature a guy who will be the next major Batman villain.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Keisha Castle-Hughes - WHALE RIDER
Diane Keaton - SOMETHING’S GOTTA GIVE
Samantha Morton - IN AMERICA
Charlize Theron - MONSTER
Naomi Watts - 21 GRAMS

One of the tougher categories, as I liked all four of the performances I’ve seen. Keaton’s work struck me as a bit too pedestrian for an Oscar nomination, though, especially considering Scarlett Johanssen was RIGHT THERE. Keisha Castle-Hughes totally deserves the nomination and in a weaker moment I might actually pick her as my “should win.” Her Whale Rider is a really fun film, and her speech scene in the film is one of the most memorable dramatic scenes of the year. She hasn’t proven herself as an actor yet, however, as the argument against kids winning Oscars is always that kids just play themselves. We’ll see how true that is with whatever her next role happens to be.

So between Theron and Watts, I chose Watts. Theron WILL win, don’t get me wrong, and I don’t think that’s a bad choice. It is, however, a choice in the same vein as Hillary Swank for Boys Don’t Cry, in that an actress is being awarded for cosmetic sacrifice and their performance rather than their performance alone. Watts has been one of my favourite actresses ever since the amazing audition scene in Mulholland Drive, and her drug-addict screaming topless mother act in 21 Grams is undoubtedly the strongest performance in a film FILLED with strong performances.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Shohreh Aghdashloo - HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
Patricia Clarkson - PIECES OF APRIL
Marcia Gay Harden - MYSTIC RIVER
Holly Hunter - THIRTEEN
Renée Zellweger - COLD MOUNTAIN

The hardest category. I once again, liked all of the four I saw (Fuck you, Cold Mountain). Marcia Gay Harden already had that surprise win a couple of years ago, and Mystic River is really all about the male performances so I don’t see her as likely here. Clarkson is one of those “It’s an honour just to be nominated” nominations, though I’m glad to see the underrated Pieces of April get some exposure. Aghdashloo is the best part of House of Sand and Fog but she’s too much of a “Wha? Who?” nomination to snag the win this year.

Zellweger will take it, much as it pains me to say. I used to like her, really. Remember Nurse Betty? Wasn’t that just weird and odd and completely random and, in the end, not totally bad? Maybe if they give her a damn Oscar already she’ll go back to being interesting.

Holly Hunter deserves it, though. I have a bunch of reservations about thirteen as a film, but her performance is very strong and completely deserving of an award.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
BROTHER BEAR
FINDING NEMO
TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE

Duh. Though I wish they’d nominate five films in this category already. Even if the other two are no-chance-in-hell crap like Sinbad and Recess, I just prefer the symmetry of it all.

ART DIRECTION
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
THE LAST SAMURAI
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT

I think Girl with a Pearl Earring is deserving of SOMETHING, and this is as good a category as any for it, but I won’t shed any tears when Rings takes it.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
CITY OF GOD
COLD MOUNTAIN
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT

This would be an easy pick for Return of the King, were it nominated. I understand why it’s not, however, as rewarding the same cinematographer three times for what essentially amounts to the same work would be kind of silly. I kind of had to pick Earring here, as I haven’t seen a lot of these, though I think this will be one of the token awards for Master and Commander. (Which I finally got a copy of, but probably won’t get around to watching before the show tomorrow night)

COSTUME DESIGN
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
THE LAST SAMURAI
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT

Those elephant costumes were BADASS!

DIRECTING
CITY OF GOD
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
LOST IN TRANSLATION
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
MYSTIC RIVER

Honestly, I almost want to pick King because Jackson’s achievement IS incredible and I really want to see the work rewarded. But Lost in Translation was just so damn good and so beautifully rewatchable that I feel it would be a travesty to pick anything above it. Lord of the Rings will win, though, and I can’t say I’m not happy for the guy.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BALSEROS
CAPTURING THE FRIEDMANS
FOG OF WAR
MY ARCHITECT
THE WEATHER UNDERGROUND
te>Lack of seeing any of these makes picking easy! Friedmans is amazing, though, so I will be glad to see it win something.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
ASYLUM
CHERNOBYL HEART
FERRY TALES

I picked the one with the best name!

FILM EDITING
CITY OF GOD
COLD MOUNTAIN
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT

Protest vote! I don’t really think Return of the King was edited at all! If I had seen City of God, I bet I’d be voting for it, but regardless, by process of elimination, I am going with the silly horse movie from the director of Pleasantville. Funnily enough, I’m tempted to say The Hulk, for all its failures as both a drama AND an action movie, should be up for this category. I really liked some of Ang Lee’s editing techniques in that movie.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS
EVIL
THE TWILIGHT SAMURAI
TWIN SISTERS
ŽELARYuote>When in doubt, pick the Canadian film. Besides, I hear it’s really good. I would like to see it!

MAKEUP
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL

How they missed nominating Monster is beyond me. The make-up artists are practically sharing top billing with Theron for that film. In any case, Lord of the Rings had pretty make-up!

MUSIC (SCORE)
BIG FISH
COLD MOUNTAIN
FINDING NEMO
HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

I don’t know if that scene where Pippen sings while Bromomir rides to his death could be considered part of the score, but it was fucking great and so I’m voting for Lord of the Rings here. You better believe I know the score.

MUSIC (SONG)
“Belleville Rendez-vous” - THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE
“Into the West” - THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
“A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow” - A MIGHTY WIND
“Scarlet Tide” - COLD MOUNTAIN
“You Will Be My Ain True Love” - COLD MOUNTAIN

What the fuck, Cold Mountain. What does Sting have to do with the CIVIL WAR? I hate you and everything you stand for. If I wanted to see a movie about cold mountains, I’d watch Chris O’Donnell in VERTICAL LIMIT and I’d enjoy EVERY LAST SECOND OF IT.

Anyway, A Mighty Wind deserves this more than the desert deserves the rain, but Rings will probably take it, even though the song is kinda blah.

BEST PICTURE
LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
LOST IN TRANSLATION
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
MYSTIC RIVER
SEABISCUIT

Ta-Da, though I will be very satisifed with the Rings victory

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
BOUNDIN’
DESTINO
GONE NUTTY
HARVIE KRUMPET
NIBBLES

Destino is apparently the Disney/Salvadore Dali project, which sounds really interesting and important, so it’ll probably win. But NIBBLES is Canadian and I gotta go with the home team on this one.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
DIE ROTE JACKE (The Red Jacket)
MOST (The Bridge)
SQUASH
(A) TORZIJA ([A] Torsion)
TWO SOLDIERS

Do you think it is about the sport of Squash, or just like, Squashing things?

SOUND EDITING
FINDING NEMO
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL

Dude I was watching Finding Nemo and I remember thinking “These sounds are pretty decent, but it’s the way they’re EDITED that really makes this movie keen.”

SOUND MIXING
THE LAST SAMURAI
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL
SEABISCUIT

Dude, I was watching Return of the King and I remember thinking “The sounds are pretty decent, but it’s the way they’re MIXED that really makes this movie keen.”

VISUAL EFFECTS
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL

This one was a real head-scratcher.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
AMERICAN SPLENDOR
CITY OF GOD
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MYSTIC RIVER
SEABISCUIT

I so want American Splendor to win this category, but I really don’t think it has the recognition or the appeal to do so. Mystic River does not deserve the award, but I think it’ll get it, on the basis that the film needs to win SOMETHING.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS
DIRTY PRETTY THINGS
FINDING NEMO
IN AMERICA
LOST IN TRANSLATION

I’m not naive. I know Coppola will get snubbed for both Best Picture and Best Director. Her best chance is here, and I think she’ll take home the statue easily. And, god, does she EVER deserve it.

So there you go. Tomorrow I will come back and see if I got ANY of them right! The show is being hosted by Billy Crystal again which means it will probably be worse then the Martin shows, but still better than the Whoopi Goldberg shows. In any case, it’s the Oscars. It is not about how much the show sucks, because it ALWAYS sucks, but rather the spectacle and inanity of it all. I will watch the whole damn thing.

Matt

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21 Comments

  1. jwb — February 29, 2004 #

    why do you hate cold mountain so much? ive been far too separated from you to have heard. please tell me so i can hate it too.

    and as for the last samurai, i once felt the same way as you. tom cruise as a samurai, what the fuck? but then ali dragged me to it cause he loves anything war and it was actually good.

  2. Care — March 1, 2004 #

    Just got home from also watching the ‘whole damn thing’ and wheeee to RotK, but booo to Sean Penn vs. Bill Murray. He got PITY CLAPS. WTF?

    PS: I hear Triplets of Belleville is coming to the Oxford next week. I am cheered.

  3. Matt — March 1, 2004 #

    I had Cold Mountain because it represents a long line of Miramax-produced prestige pictures that are generally pretentious period pieces starring up-and-coming actors and actresses looking for a gold statue. They’re not necessarily BAD films, but their entire reason for being seems to more LET’S WIN AWARDS when it should be LET’S MAKE A GOOD FILM.

    I haven’t officially checked yet, but having watched the (terribly DULL) ceremony, I feel like I did pretty well prediction-wise! There wasn’t a SINGLE surprising award, which actually sucked because I was nearly falling asleep by the end there.

    I think I actually have the “Triplets of Belleville” on my hard drive, but I haven’t gotten around to watching it. Let me know when you plan on going, ’cause I might be interested in going to!

  4. Jack — March 1, 2004 #

    ‘Bromomir’? What the hell? It’s FARAMIR. BOROMIR was Sean Bean.

    Anyhow, your predictions were pretty good. I don’t think anyone, however, could have predicted how mind-numbingly boring the entire show was.

  5. Jack — March 1, 2004 #

    Bah, I made a /nerd HTML tag, but your window thing doesn’t know that I meant it as a joke! dlkfajdga!

  6. Matt — March 1, 2004 #

    I always get those guys confused! Douglas Adams, when he wrote the books, should have made their names more different. Like if they were Bill and Steve, I’d have no problem with it.

    (I’m surprised JW didn’t catch my error, considering he is a huge LOTR nerd.)

  7. Jack — March 1, 2004 #

    … you means J.R.R. Tolkien?

  8. Matt — March 1, 2004 #

    I was kidding with that part. Really. I’m not stupid, I know the difference between the writer of Lord of the Rings (J.R.R. Tolkien) and the writer of The Chronicles of Narnia (Douglas Adams)!

  9. Bryan and Kristine's Friend Jeremy — March 2, 2004 #

    I thought Douglas Adams wrote Tales of a Fourth Grade Nothing and War and Peace?

  10. Care — March 2, 2004 #

    So if Douglas Adams wrote Narnia, who the hell wrote Alice in Wonderland?

  11. Luke — March 2, 2004 #

    Stephen King.

  12. Jack — March 2, 2004 #

    Is this a Canadian inside joke?

  13. Matt — March 2, 2004 #

    If I can just quote Farley Mowat’s stunning autobiography “A Hard Day’s Night” here for a moment, I think you’ll understand:

    “It’s better to burn out, than to fade away.”

    I think that says it all. Godspeed, Mr. Mowat.

  14. Luke — March 3, 2004 #

    For god’s sakes would someone refer to Stephen King again so I can make the Return of the King joke.

  15. Matt — March 4, 2004 #

    Hey guys,

    Stephen King.

    Regards,
    Matt “Now that I can dance” Elliott

  16. Care — March 4, 2004 #

    Stephen King - Gerald’s Game - his best novel ever? Ridiculously scary and disturbing and impossible to make a marketable movie of. Thought I would say that.

    I said it.

    YOU READ IT!

    Oh man I hate this essay.

    Caroline “I think it’s so groovy now, that people are finally gettin’ together” Gaston

  17. Luke — March 4, 2004 #

    Sorry guys I forgot the joke.

  18. Care — March 7, 2004 #

    Matt, you will be so proud of me! I deleted the tagboard today! *gasp gasp sigh* It was painful and scary but then I realized no one has ever said anything useful on it, soooo it is gone, and I am lovely.

  19. Rory — March 7, 2004 #

    I really like seeing my name on the Internet. If only I had a clever comment relative to the preceeding discussion which I could contribute so as to justify the leaving of a comment. Sigh.

  20. Matt — March 8, 2004 #

    Rory! You’re here! And this is clearly a no-clever zone, judging by the last, oh, twenty posts.

    Has anyone ever head the Bruce Springsteen song “Love will tear us apart”? It’s pretty good! My favourite line is the part that goes “There’s something in the way she moves…” You know which part I’m talking about?

    Yeah. That’s a good part.

    Matt

  21. Pingback - graphicmatt » Everything’s Ruined — October 6, 2004 #

    [...] inished, honestly. I was just so damn tired of going back through past articles and seeing my old articles used by spamming assholes to increase their google rank. With my old back-end [...]

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