Quick Oscar Predictions

Coming down to the wire with these, but then, so did the ceremony itself. I’ll be liveblogging this show via my twitter account. My picks:

Best Picture

Atonement is pretty but stupid. I’m definitely part of the Juno-backlash-backlash (i.e. I liked it, dammit) but I don’t feel great about rewarding a movie that starts with ten terrible minutes. Michael Clayton is good but probably a little too much 1970s. No Country For My Old Men is my “Why haven’t I watched it yet?” secret shame film from this year. I’ll get to it. I promise. There Will be Blood is totally great but I still kind of thought it was a step down for Paul Thomas Anderson.

Overall, though, it’s a good crop. Except for Atonement, which really only deserves nomination in the technical and cinematography categories. (Possibly Best Supporting Actress, too.) I can’t really pick between the remaining four, so let’s say…

Should Win: There Will Be Blood

Will Win: No Country For Old Men

Best Actor

Clooney is totally awesome in Michael Clayton; I have such a man crush it’s making me feel a little funny inside. Daniel Day-Lewis? I mean, come on. He’s the best thing going today. Johnny Depp should go to hell. I hate Sweeney Todd and never even saw it. Plus, I heard there’s a backlash against him. Tommy Lee Jones, I am pretty sure the movie you are nominated for does not really exist. And, lastly, Viggo Mortensen, I hope you have good seats. Because you will be sitting all night.

Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Win Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett was apparently nominated on the strength of some people assuming it is still 1998. Julie Christie seems pretty good in Away From Her but, man, what a downer. The chick from La Vie En Rose is apparently awesome but, sadly, the movie is performed in some weird ancient dialect. Laura Linney is phenomenal in The Savages but no one saw it except for me. Ellen Page should realistically have a great chance of winning, but the academy doesn’t really like to give this award to young actresses. (Ask Kate Winslet.)

Should Win: Laura Linney

Will Win: Julie Christie

Best Supporting Actor

Casey Affleck is heavily handicapped by the fact that there is no earthly way the full title of his film will fit on the statuette base. Philip Seymour Hoffman is truly great in Charlie Wilson’s War but that movie kind of vanished. Hal Holbrook might as well be referred to tonight as “token old guy.” Tom Wilkinson didn’t really chew the scenery enough to win, though he was legitimately great. Javier Bardem has, I guess, gotten some critical acclaim for his role in No Country For Old Men.

Should Win: Tom Wilkinson

Will Win: Javier Bardem

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett? Whoa, Deja Vu. But she’s got a good chance. Definitely showy enough. (And the movie is great.) Ruby Dee might as well be referred to as “token old nominee” tonight, too. Saorise Ronan is the best part of a bad movie, but you would never guess how her name is pronounced. Amy Ryan? Yet to see it but hear good things. Tilda Swinton? Totally great.

Should Win: Tilda Swinton

Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson should win just because he’s directed five films, all of which are great in different ways, but the voters probably don’t think like me. The Coens have a whole “legacy award” vibe going for them. Tony Gilroy has zero chance; it’s his first movie and he’s not Mel Gibson or Kevin Costner. Jason Reitman is probably a bit too young. Julian Schnabel is a token nominee. It’s between Anderson and the Coens, and the latter seems more likely.

Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Will Win: The Coens

Best Original Screenplay

Brad Bird is handicapped by being part of the animated ghetto. I’d argue he’s the best writer of the five nominees, though. Diablo Cody has done what only Charlie Kaufman has done before her: become a ’star’ screenwriter. Gilroy has an outside chance, I guess, but he should probably just sit near Mortensen. Tamara Jenkins should be honoured just to be nominated. Nancy Oliver? Your movie was kind of quirky and cute but also incredibly ridiculous.

Should Win: Brad Bird

Will Win: Diablo Cody

Best Adapted Screenplay

Paul Thomas Anderson has a better shot of winning here if he doesn’t get Best Director. It’s the same with the Coens. Screenplay awards are great consolation prizes. Hampton, Harwood and Polley only have outside shots if the vote gets split right down the middle between the front-runners.

Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Best Animated Feature

I hate this category and it should not exist. Perseopolis is supposed to be great but I don’t think it was seen by enough people to squeak it out. Surf’s Up is a joke nomination. It’s all Ratatouille.

Should Win: Ratatouille

Will Win: Ratatouille

Quick Picks for other categories

Art Direction: Atonement

Cinematography: Atonement

Costume Design: Elizabeth

Documentary: No End in Sight

Documentary Short: (Flipping a weird four-sided coin) Sari’s Mother

Editing: Bourne Ultimatum

Foreign Language: The Counterfeiters

Make-up: La Vie En Rose

Score: Atonement

Original Song: Falling Slowly (probably the best part of the ceremony will be this being played)

Sound Editing: No Country

Sound Mixing: No Country

Visual Effects: Pirates

Animated Short: I Met The Walrus

Live-Action Short: At Night